WHY ALASKA? WHY NOW? A direct, frank and unfiltered conversation we had with Eric Croft, Campaign Manager for Mary Peltola
WHY ALASKA? WHY NOW?
Here's the exerpts from a conversation DJ and I had with Eric Croft, Mary's Campaign Manager and point person on fundraising. We learned a number of things that were interesting, counterintuitive and insightful as to WHY early money makes sense for her race. Here's his comments:
Alaska is one of four key states to win the US Senate majority in 2026.
• With Mary Peltola’s growing strength and GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan’s eroding support, Alaska is winnable this year.
• This victory depends on a statewide, comprehensive ground game with local Alaskans regularly speaking to their neighbors, and people Alaskans can trust in every village, town, and city.
• We have started, and are ahead of our GOP rivals.
• To do it right and lock the bad guys out, we need to open the offices and hire the right people on the ground now.
• We need your investment to do that.
ALASKA IS KEY TO A SENATE MAJORITY:
To win the US Senate, Democrats must keep all their current seats, and win four more seats; Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina and Maine.1 With exciting Democratic candidates in each, and eroding support for Trump and MAGA, this seems increasingly likely. Here is why Mary Peltola is going to win in Alaska.
MARY IS BUILDING HER LEAD:
Mary Peltola is a generational candidate, who won a seat in Congress that Democrats had lost for 50 years, then almost won in the 2024 red wave, over performing by 11 points. She is a rare combination; voters see her as new and genuine, but she also has legislative experience and the battle-tested team of a more established candidate. Even before she announced, polls showed Mary up an average of 2% and that lead has now grown in tracking polls to 5-7%.2
SULLIVAN IS UNPOPULAR AND STUCK:
Sullivan is underwater in Alaska by 20%. This is partly due to his actions (voting for the Big Bad Bill, refusing to hold consituent meetings, shady $$ dealings in office) but also an 18-month independent accountability effort based on polling showing that swing voting Alaskans were open to the message of Dan being out-of-touch, not defending Alaska, and being too beholden to DC interests. A majority of Alaskans now agree with these messages about Dan. Mary is also hitting corruption on hard with her “Fixing the Rigged System” campaign.
ALASKA FOLLOWS SOME NATIONAL TRENDS:
Trump has a disapproval rating of 57%, with similar disapproval numbers for the Iran War, and a whopping 85% of Alaskans thinking the economy is getting worse. Like the rest of the nation, we have scored significant gains in interim local elections.
ALASKA IS UNIQUE IN OTHERS WAYS:
Alaska’s 740k people are spread over a huge land mass, larger than Texas, California and Montana combined. More than 80% of our communities are off the road system – accessible only by plane, boat, or snow machine (never “snowmobile”). 30% of voters have different mailing and residential addresses, increasing provisional ballot rates by 150%. Nearly 10% of voters live more than 20 miles from their mailing address, reducing both turnout and mail effecOveness. 84,000 voters (14%) live outside media markets with most of those people having PO Boxes, limiOng reach via traditional advertising and increasing reliance on digital and relational organizing. This combination of small population, huge distances, and remote communities is a challenge but also represents a significant opportunity as well.
IT IS ORGANIZING, STUPID:
Democrats and progressive groups are relearning the old political truth that continuous organizing and direct communication to votes from trusted sources; friends, acquaintances, neighbors, is the key to winning elections.
Mary and her team saw this coming over 5 years ago, in her first run for Congress. She made engaging with low propensity voters a core part of
her strategy. Part of the reason she overperforms the national average is that she talks to and brings out voters that other campaigns miss.
A COMPREHENSIVE LOCAL GROUND GAME:
In 2026, the Alaska Democratic Party intends to take this organizing and voter engagement effort and supercharge it. In cooperation with the DSCC and Mary’s campaign, we will run the largest and most complete field operation in Alaska’s history. We will have large staffed offices in the larger communities of Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau, smaller offices in regional hub
communities, and a presence in every one of Alaska’s remote villages. We will engage voters in their homes with people they know or at least can relate to as Alaskans.
WE ARE AHEAD NOW, BUT:
The GOP seem to be thinking on a much smaller scale for their organizing effort for now. If we act quickly over the next few months to hire the right people in each community and make the initial contacts, we can get a lead that will be hard for the GOP to match. Late money simply cannot create an effective field organization for either party and late money spent on an already saturated (over-whelmed?) Alaska media market will not be impactful. Early funding is key.
WHAT WE NEED:
This effort will cost $5,000,000 to do right. The DSCC is committed to this effort but is also funding the other races we need to hold or gain. We believe that we need to raise $1,000,000 outside of DSCC efforts to make this plan work. This is 40 contributions of $25k each to the Victory Fund, which is allocated $7k to Mary’s campaign, $10k to the Alaska Democratic Party, and $8k to the DSCC..